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The Claim, and the Test That Was Agreed

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The Claim, and the Test That Was Agreed

Natasha Demkina came to notice in Russia in 2004 for saying that she could look at a living person and see the state of the organs inside them, a claim that received considerable coverage and led to invitations to be tested. She agreed to a test in New York, arranged with a sceptics organisation and a research body and recorded for television. The design was settled with her before it began, which is the feature that makes the case worth recording.

Seven volunteers took part, each with a documented medical condition, together with one who had none, and the task was to match each condition to the right person. Because a person can be matched by chance, a threshold was fixed in advance for what would count as a result supporting the claim, and the number set was five correct matches out of seven. She made four. The atlas records the arrangement in that order, the claim first, the design second, the threshold third and the outcome last, because the sequence is what makes the episode interpretable at all, and it is the sequence that is usually lost when the case is retold.

Two things about the arrangement are worth separating from the outcome. She agreed to be tested, which claimants of this kind frequently decline to do, and the terms were negotiated with her rather than imposed. And the task chosen was one her claim entailed: if a person can see the condition of the organs, then matching a documented condition to the body it belongs to is exactly what the ability would permit. A test that asks for something the claim does not assert proves nothing whichever way it comes out, and this one did not make that mistake.

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